Renewal of Syria

The Nine Deadly Sins of Strategy

Reframing and Manifesting key strategic sins and failure as helpful guidance points for Syria’s future leaders, institutions, and stakeholders as they navigate post-war reconstruction and long-term national development.

1. Incognizance: Lack of awareness or understanding of important external changes that undermine current models.

Syria: Continuously refresh strategic awareness. The Syria of today demographically, economically, politically is radically different than pre-2011.

Strategic Pointer:

• Create a national strategic foresight function to regularly analyze regional shifts, demographic changes, technology, and investment trends.
• Conduct strategic scans every 12-18 months, including voices from diaspora, youth, and external observers.

Caution: Avoid assuming that past models of governance or development still hold. Ignoring tectonic shifts (such as refugee outflows, sanctions, or urban transformation) is a form of strategic blindness.

2. Dissociation: Disconnection between strategy makers and key implementers or stakeholders.

Syria: Bridge national strategy and local implementation.

Strategic Pointer:

• Involve provincial leaders, municipalities, and service providers early in planning.
• Engage civil society and private sector in both design and delivery of programs.

Caution: Top-down plans that bypass local realities will face passive resistance or outright failure.

3. Simplism: Reducing complex problems into overly simplistic solutions or slogans.

Syria: Embrace complexity before simplifying messaging.

Strategic Pointer:

• Use systems thinking to understand how economic challenges, strategic planning, housing, economic revitalization, justice, and identity are intertwined.
• Pilot complex programs in specific areas before scaling.

Caution: Don’t assume that rebuilding infrastructure alone will rebuild society. Oversimplification leads to ineffective solutions and erodes credibility.

4. Operationalism: Overfocus on short-term operations at the expense of long-term vision.

Syria: Balance urgent recovery with long-range planning.

Strategic Pointer:

• Allocate strategic bandwidth at the national level explicitly for future visioning.
• Separate crisis response teams from long-term planners.

Caution: Being busy with firefighting can distract from planning for Syria’s new economic model, governance structure, or regional role.

5. Wimpiness: Avoiding bold choices due to fear of risk or failure.

Syria: Create safe spaces for bold, future-oriented thinking.

Strategic Pointer:

• Encourage policy experimentation in controlled environments (e.g. economic zones, municipal reform pilots).
• Reward innovation and accept that not all risk-taking will succeed.

Caution: Rebuilding a nation requires courage. Over-conservatism leads to stagnation and missed opportunities.

6. Groupthink (the “Yes” Syndrom): Homogeneous thinking that stifles criples innovation.

Syria: Institutionalize structured criticism and external challenge.

Strategic Pointer:

• Invite non-aligned technocrats, academics, and diaspora to strategic discussions.
• Use red teams or scenario challenge panels to test strategies before implementation.

Caution: When only loyal voices are heard, blind spots multiply and failure becomes likely.

7. Delusion: Strategies based on unrealistic goals, assumptions, or data.

Syria: Ground national strategies in real capacities and external validation.

Strategic Pointer:

• Stress test development plans against current fiscal, political, and administrative realities.
• Use independent evaluators and international benchmarks.

Caution: Overly ambitious reconstruction visions without resourcing or legitimacy lead to frustration and international disengagement.

8. Pride: Overconfidence rooted in past or even current success, leading to disregard of emerging risks.

Syria: Balance national pride with strategic humility.

Strategic Pointer:

• Cultivate an honest culture of internal and external feedback.
• Celebrate resilience, but remain aware of vulnerabilities.

Caution: Assuming that “victory” alone legitimizes authority or ensures sustainability can backfire.

9. Indolence: Failure to follow through on plans

Syria: Match every vision with execution accountability.

Strategic Pointer:

• Establish a delivery unit that tracks implementation of national initiatives.
• Tie promotions and recognition to actual delivery, not planning.

Caution: Repetitive strategy announcements without follow-through erode public trust and investor confidence.

Final Note:

These reflections are offered as constructive guidance for any leadership team navigating complexity, uncertainty, and renewal. The path ahead for Syria is not about perfection, but about strategic clarity, honest reflections, and inclusive execution.

The sins are not unique to Syria—they are human. But by recognizing them, Syria can become a case study in how nations learn, adapt, and emerge stronger.

* Based on multiple material, with modifications and edits by me to suit the context and purpose of this document.